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n=200n = 200

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which for p ≈\approx 0.5 and n = 200 is about 3.5 percentage points — before adding any run-to-run generation variance, and before accounting for the fact that benchmark items are not independent. A reported two-point difference between two systems on such a suite is not evidence of anything.

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n=200n = 200

Equation 12 · Foundation Models

Measuring Frontier Models: Contamination, Variance, and What a Score Can Support

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions.

which for p ≈\approx 0.5 and n = 200 is about 3.5 percentage points — before adding any run-to-run generation variance, and before accounting for the fact that benchmark items are not independent. A reported two-point difference between two systems on such a suite is not evidence of anything.

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