Equation 12 · Measuring Frontier Models: Contamination, Variance, and What a Score Can Support
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Symbol n
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=
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which for p 0.5 and n = 200 is about 3.5 percentage points — before adding any run-to-run generation variance, and before accounting for the fact that benchmark items are not independent. A reported two-point difference between two systems on such a suite is not evidence of anything.
Sources cited in the article section
- [10] Model guidance ↗
- [8] DeepSeek-R1 Incentivizes Reasoning in LLMs through Reinforcement Learning ↗
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