← Back to article

Equation 19 · The Type Chart Is a Payoff Matrix, and the Metagame Only Half-Solves It

What does this equation mean?

2.3×10132.3\times10^{13}

Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

Read it piece by piece

superscript

superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

Understand this part →

See an illustrated explanation →

How to interpret it

Read this expression with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

Scoring the fit with Kullback–Leibler divergence, DKL(p ∥ q)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p \,\|\, q) = ∑i\sum_i pip_i log⁡2(pi/qi)\log_2(p_i/q_i) , from the observed August distribution to each candidate: the solved game scores 10.15 bits, the uniform null scores 0.045 bits, and July’s raw persistence scores 0.00068 bits. On a chi-square test against the eight species’ actual August battle counts (summing to 2,137,239 team-appearances, treating each candidate distribution as the expected shares), the solved game scores approximately 2.3×\times10^{13} — a figure that large only because the model assigns four real, frequently-played species an expected share of essentially zero, and squaring a large real count against a near-zero…
Read the full surrounding passage
Scoring the fit with Kullback–Leibler divergence, DKL(p ∥ q)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p \,\|\, q) = ∑i\sum_i pip_i log⁡2(pi/qi)\log_2(p_i/q_i) , from the observed August distribution to each candidate: the solved game scores 10.15 bits, the uniform null scores 0.045 bits, and July’s raw persistence scores 0.00068 bits. On a chi-square test against the eight species’ actual August battle counts (summing to 2,137,239 team-appearances, treating each candidate distribution as the expected shares), the solved game scores approximately 2.3×\times10^{13} — a figure that large only because the model assigns four real, frequently-played species an expected share of essentially zero, and squaring a large real count against a near-zero expectation explodes the statistic — against 159,897 for uniform and 4,371 for persistence. Every test agrees, and by a wide margin: the equilibrium this piece computed from the actual, official type chart is a dramatically worse predictor of the actual ladder than either “assume no type advantage matters” or “assume nothing changed since last month.”

Read the equation in its article →

Sources cited in the article section

These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.

Return to The Type Chart Is a Payoff Matrix, and the Metagame Only Half-Solves It

See this formula across 1 published context →

Browse the mathematical compendium →