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Equation 29 · The Economics and Physical Limits of Running AI Agents at Scale

What does this equation mean?

E[Cn]≈∑i=1nci1−qi\mathbb{E}[C_n] \approx \sum_{i=1}^{n} \frac{c_i}{1-q_i}

Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.

Start withc_i
Divide by1-q_i
This relates toE[C_n] ≈ sum_i
How to read the two sides of this formula. Follow the article passage for the meaning of each quantity.

This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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E\mathbb{E}

Symbol E

The expected value operator: the probability-weighted average of the quantity inside its brackets.

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CnC_n

Symbol C_n

CnC_n is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

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ii

Symbol i

i appears in the bound of this sum. The bound states where the repeated operation starts, ends, or which values it includes.

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nn

Symbol n

n appears in the bound of this sum. The bound states where the repeated operation starts, ends, or which values it includes.

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cic_i

Symbol c_i

cic_i occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

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qiq_i

Symbol q_i

the probability.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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fraction

fraction

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

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≈

≈

Approximately equal to; the equality is not exact.

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subscript

subscript

The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.

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superscript

superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

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i=1i=1

Starting index or lower bound: i=1

This label says where the repeated addition, multiplication, or accumulation starts. Read its value or condition together with the article’s description of the index.

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nn

Ending index or upper bound: n

This label says where the repeated addition, multiplication, or accumulation stops. It sets the last term or end of the range.

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1−qi1-q_i

Denominator: 1-q_i

The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.

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How to interpret it

With a fixed numerator, increasing a nonzero denominator reduces the fraction. Its accuracy depends on the assumptions and range of use described in the article. Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

If a step fails and is retried with probability qiq_i , independent of other steps, the expected cost of the trajectory becomes E[Cn]≈∑i=1nci1−qi\mathbb{E}[C_n] \approx \sum_{i=1}^{n} \frac{c_i}{1-q_i}. Holding qiq_i = q constant across the trajectory — a simplification, since real failure rates are neither constant nor independent — the expected extra cost from retries is q1−q\frac{q}{1-q}∑i\sum_i cic_i , and because cic_i increases with i , that extra cost is weighted toward the trajectory’s most expensive, latest steps rather than distributed evenly across it. A one-percent per-step retry rate is a rounding error at step five. Applied at step two hundred of an uncached or lightly cached loop, it is a rounding error on a much larger number.

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Sources cited in the article section

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