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Equation 1 · One Tree: The Statistics of Common Descent

What does this equation mean?

K=P(D∣MUCA)P(D∣MIO)K = \frac{P(D \mid M_{\text{UCA}})}{P(D \mid M_{\text{IO}})}

Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.

Start withP(D mid M_UCA)
Divide byP(D mid M_IO)
This relates toK
How to read the two sides of this formula. Follow the article passage for the meaning of each quantity.

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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KK

Symbol K

K is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

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PP

Symbol P

P is an input to the expression that computes the quantity on the left.

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DD

Symbol D

under one model than the other - not a correlation coefficient, not a subjective sense of resemblance, but a single number with a precise probabilistic meaning that can in principle come out favouring either model.

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MUCAM_{\text{UCA}}

Symbol M_UCA

MUM_UCA occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

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MIOM_{\text{IO}}

Symbol M_IO

MIM_IO occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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fraction

fraction

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

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subscript

subscript

The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.

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P(D∣MUCA)P(D \mid M_{\text{UCA}})

Numerator: P(D mid M_UCA)

The complete quantity above the fraction bar.

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P(D∣MIO)P(D \mid M_{\text{IO}})

Denominator: P(D mid M_IO)

The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.

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How to interpret it

With a fixed numerator, increasing a nonzero denominator reduces the fraction. Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

The logic of that adjudication reduces to one ratio. For sequence data compared under a universal-common-ancestry model against an independent-origins model, K=P(D∣MUCA)P(D∣MIO)K = \frac{P(D \mid M_{\text{UCA}})}{P(D \mid M_{\text{IO}})}. and K , the Bayes factor, states exactly how many times more probable the observed data D are under one model than the other - not a correlation coefficient, not a subjective sense of resemblance, but a single number with a precise probabilistic meaning that can in principle come out favouring either model. For the proteins Theobald examined, it was not close. Universal common ancestry came out favoured over the closest competing multiple-ancestry hypothesis by odds reported on the order of ten to the power of two…
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The logic of that adjudication reduces to one ratio. For sequence data compared under a universal-common-ancestry model against an independent-origins model, K=P(D∣MUCA)P(D∣MIO)K = \frac{P(D \mid M_{\text{UCA}})}{P(D \mid M_{\text{IO}})}. and K , the Bayes factor, states exactly how many times more probable the observed data D are under one model than the other - not a correlation coefficient, not a subjective sense of resemblance, but a single number with a precise probabilistic meaning that can in principle come out favouring either model. For the proteins Theobald examined, it was not close. Universal common ancestry came out favoured over the closest competing multiple-ancestry hypothesis by odds reported on the order of ten to the power of two thousand eight hundred and sixty to one, and over the specific alternative that humans arose independently of the rest of life by something on the order of ten to the power of six thousand to one - numbers large enough that Theobald himself, discussing the paper around its publication, called it beside the point to state them as ordinary betting odds. The result held, notably, even when the alternative models were allowed to include horizontal gene transfer and symbiotic fusion events rather than only a strictly bifurcating rival tree [ 5 ] .

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