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Equation 6 · Part 3 · AI Memory Systems and the Bandwidth Wall in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions

Symbol t_0

τ=t1−t0log⁡2 ⁣(B1/B0)=2025−2022log⁡2(2.0/0.82)≈2.3 years.\tau = \frac{t_1 - t_0}{\log_2\!\left(B_1 / B_0\right)} = \frac{2025 - 2022}{\log_2(2.0 / 0.82)} \approx 2.3 \ \text{years}.
t0t_0

What this part means

t0t_0 occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

Its job in the formula

t0t_0 occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

The passage around this formula

where B0B_0 is the bandwidth at reference year t0t_0 and τ\tau is the doubling time implied by the data. Solving for τ\tau from the two JEDEC anchor points gives τ=t1−t0log⁡2 ⁣(B1/B0)=2025−2022log⁡2(2.0/0.82)≈2.3 years\tau = \frac{t_1 - t_0}{\log_2\!\left(B_1 / B_0\right)} = \frac{2025 - 2022}{\log_2(2.0 / 0.82)} \approx 2.3 \ \text{years}. Extrapolated naively, ten more years at that doubling time — roughly 4.3 further doublings — would put per-stack bandwidth near 39 terabytes per second by 2035. That…

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