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Equation 6 · AI Memory Systems and the Bandwidth Wall in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions

What does this equation mean?

τ=t1−t0log⁡2 ⁣(B1/B0)=2025−2022log⁡2(2.0/0.82)≈2.3 years.\tau = \frac{t_1 - t_0}{\log_2\!\left(B_1 / B_0\right)} = \frac{2025 - 2022}{\log_2(2.0 / 0.82)} \approx 2.3 \ \text{years}.

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Start witht_1 - t_0
Divide bylog_2(B_1 / B_0)
This relates toτ
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This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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τ\tau

Symbol τ

the doubling time implied by the data.

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t1t_1

Symbol t_1

t1t_1 occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

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t0t_0

Symbol t_0

t0t_0 occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.

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B1B_1

Symbol B_1

B1B_1 occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.

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B0B_0

Symbol B_0

the bandwidth at reference year t0t_0.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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fraction

fraction

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

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≈

≈

Approximately equal to; the equality is not exact.

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subtraction

subtraction

Subtract the following term or group from the preceding one. A leading minus marks a negative quantity.

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subscript

subscript

The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.

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t1−t0t_1 - t_0

Numerator: t_1 - t_0

The complete quantity above the fraction bar.

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log⁡2 ⁣(B1/B0)\log_2\!\left(B_1 / B_0\right)

Denominator: log_2(B_1 / B_0)

The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.

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2025−20222025 - 2022

Numerator: 2025 - 2022

The complete quantity above the fraction bar.

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log⁡2(2.0/0.82)\log_2(2.0 / 0.82)

Denominator: log_2(2.0 / 0.82)

The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.

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How to interpret it

With a fixed numerator, increasing a nonzero denominator reduces the fraction. Its accuracy depends on the assumptions and range of use described in the article. Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

where B0B_0 is the bandwidth at reference year t0t_0 and τ\tau is the doubling time implied by the data. Solving for τ\tau from the two JEDEC anchor points gives τ=t1−t0log⁡2 ⁣(B1/B0)=2025−2022log⁡2(2.0/0.82)≈2.3 years\tau = \frac{t_1 - t_0}{\log_2\!\left(B_1 / B_0\right)} = \frac{2025 - 2022}{\log_2(2.0 / 0.82)} \approx 2.3 \ \text{years}. Extrapolated naively, ten more years at that doubling time — roughly 4.3 further doublings — would put per-stack bandwidth near 39 terabytes per second by 2035. That number should not be believed as stated, and the reason it should not be believed is itself the analytically interesting point. A two-point fit is not a trend; it is a line drawn through the only two data JEDEC has actually ratified. And it runs well ahead of the general DRAM-and-interconnect bandwidth scaling documented across two decades of hardware by…
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where B0B_0 is the bandwidth at reference year t0t_0 and τ\tau is the doubling time implied by the data. Solving for τ\tau from the two JEDEC anchor points gives τ=t1−t0log⁡2 ⁣(B1/B0)=2025−2022log⁡2(2.0/0.82)≈2.3 years\tau = \frac{t_1 - t_0}{\log_2\!\left(B_1 / B_0\right)} = \frac{2025 - 2022}{\log_2(2.0 / 0.82)} \approx 2.3 \ \text{years}. Extrapolated naively, ten more years at that doubling time — roughly 4.3 further doublings — would put per-stack bandwidth near 39 terabytes per second by 2035. That number should not be believed as stated, and the reason it should not be believed is itself the analytically interesting point. A two-point fit is not a trend; it is a line drawn through the only two data JEDEC has actually ratified. And it runs well ahead of the general DRAM-and-interconnect bandwidth scaling documented across two decades of hardware by Gholami and colleagues, who report peak server FLOPS scaling at roughly 3.0 times every two years against DRAM bandwidth scaling at only 1.6 times and interconnect bandwidth at 1.4 times over the same interval [ 13 ] . Apply that slower, broader-based 1.6×-per-two-years rate to the same 2025 starting point instead, and 2035 bandwidth lands closer to 21 terabytes per second per stack — almost half the naive HBM-specific extrapolation.

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