Equation 6 · AI Memory Systems and the Bandwidth Wall in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions
What does this equation mean?
Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.
This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.
Read it piece by piece
Symbol t_1
occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.
Symbol t_0
occurs above the fraction bar. The numerator is divided by the entire denominator below it.
Symbol B_1
occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.
=
The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.
See an illustrated explanation →subtraction
Subtract the following term or group from the preceding one. A leading minus marks a negative quantity.
subscript
The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.
Denominator: log_2(B_1 / B_0)
The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.
See an illustrated explanation →Denominator: log_2(2.0 / 0.82)
The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.
See an illustrated explanation →How to interpret it
With a fixed numerator, increasing a nonzero denominator reduces the fraction. Its accuracy depends on the assumptions and range of use described in the article. Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.
What the article says around this equation
where is the bandwidth at reference year and is the doubling time implied by the data. Solving for from the two JEDEC anchor points gives . Extrapolated naively, ten more years at that doubling time — roughly 4.3 further doublings — would put per-stack bandwidth near 39 terabytes per second by 2035. That number should not be believed as stated, and the reason it should not be believed is itself the analytically interesting point. A two-point fit is not a trend; it is a line drawn through the only two data JEDEC has actually ratified. And it runs well ahead of the general DRAM-and-interconnect bandwidth scaling documented across two decades of hardware by…
Read the full surrounding passage
where is the bandwidth at reference year and is the doubling time implied by the data. Solving for from the two JEDEC anchor points gives . Extrapolated naively, ten more years at that doubling time — roughly 4.3 further doublings — would put per-stack bandwidth near 39 terabytes per second by 2035. That number should not be believed as stated, and the reason it should not be believed is itself the analytically interesting point. A two-point fit is not a trend; it is a line drawn through the only two data JEDEC has actually ratified. And it runs well ahead of the general DRAM-and-interconnect bandwidth scaling documented across two decades of hardware by Gholami and colleagues, who report peak server FLOPS scaling at roughly 3.0 times every two years against DRAM bandwidth scaling at only 1.6 times and interconnect bandwidth at 1.4 times over the same interval [ 13 ] . Apply that slower, broader-based 1.6×-per-two-years rate to the same 2025 starting point instead, and 2035 bandwidth lands closer to 21 terabytes per second per stack — almost half the naive HBM-specific extrapolation.
Sources cited in the surrounding passage
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.