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Equation 7 · Part 4 · AI Datacenter Interconnects in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions

multiplication

R(2035)=200⋅29/4≈950R(2035) = 200 \cdot 2^{9/4} \approx 950
multiplication

What this part means

Multiply the quantities on either side.

Its job in the formula

Multiply the quantities on either side.

The passage around this formula

Anchoring at R0R_0 = 200 Gb/s per lane, t0t_0 = 2026 , and holding the most recently observed four-year doubling period fixed gives R(2035) = 200 ⋅\cdot 2^{9/4} ≈\approx 950 Gb/s per lane by 2035 — essentially a 1 Tb/s single electrical lane. That number is offered to be doubted, not believed. The assumption it encodes — that the doubling period keeps compressing on a fixed clock rather than lengthening as channel loss and signal-to-noise margin close in — is exactly the part the standards process itself is already hedging against: P802.3dj did not simply push PAM-4 harder, it added an 800 Gb/s coherent-signalling option specifically for the reaches where intensity-modulated PAM-4 stops being the…

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Sources cited in the surrounding passage

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