Tagged scaling laws · show all articles
Two axes govern the next decade of frontier model systems: where the next increment of capability is bought, and whether the physical constraints tighten. Crossing them gives four futures, none of which is the favourite.
The line from Shannon's letter counts to trained deliberation is usually told as one long scaling curve. It was not. It was a sequence of specific bottlenecks, each named, each broken by a different idea.
Three ways of getting more capability into a servable model, each with a different cost profile, a different failure mode, and a different answer to the question of what a parameter is for.
A frontier model is a budget divided three ways. Where the compute goes—into weights, into behaviour, or into each individual answer—determines almost everything else about the system.