#forecasting

A prototype retrieval appliance sled caught half-seated on its bench rails in a bright systems evaluation lab, a cork board of loosely pinned dated cards visible on the wall beyond

RAG in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Two axes decide what retrieval-augmented generation becomes by 2035: whether evidence-gathering stays a separate, inspectable step, and whether what it returns can be verified. Crossing them gives four futures, and current evidence does not yet pick one.

By Brecht Corbeel · August 11, 2026 · 19 min read

A bright datacenter hall part-way through build-out, two rack rows populated with accelerator chassis and the next rows standing as empty steel frames on bare concrete with access floor tiles lifted

Foundation Models

Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Two axes govern the next decade of frontier model systems: where the next increment of capability is bought, and whether the physical constraints tighten. Crossing them gives four futures, none of which is the favourite.

By Brecht Corbeel · August 8, 2026 · 14 min read

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