Symbol p
p is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.
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which for p 0.5 and n = 200 is about 3.5 percentage points — before adding any run-to-run generation variance, and before accounting for the fact that benchmark items are not independent. A reported two-point difference between two systems on such a suite is not evidence of anything.
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Equation 11 · Foundation Models
Measuring Frontier Models: Contamination, Variance, and What a Score Can Support
This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation.
which for p 0.5 and n = 200 is about 3.5 percentage points — before adding any run-to-run generation variance, and before accounting for the fact that benchmark items are not independent. A reported two-point difference between two systems on such a suite is not evidence of anything.
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