Equation 11 · Measuring Frontier Models: Contamination, Variance, and What a Score Can Support
What does this equation mean?
Read the formula alongside the article passage below. Each part has a deeper page with its role in the equation, the supporting passage and nearby citations.
This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.
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Symbol p
p is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.
How to interpret it
Its accuracy depends on the assumptions and range of use described in the article.
What the article says around this equation
which for p 0.5 and n = 200 is about 3.5 percentage points — before adding any run-to-run generation variance, and before accounting for the fact that benchmark items are not independent. A reported two-point difference between two systems on such a suite is not evidence of anything.
Sources cited in the article section
- [10] Model guidance ↗
- [8] DeepSeek-R1 Incentivizes Reasoning in LLMs through Reinforcement Learning ↗
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.
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