$$g_F > g_B$$

Equation 6 · Foundation Models

Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

This equation states a bound: one expression must stay on the indicated side of the other under the article’s assumptions.

with $g_F$ and $g_B$ the annual growth factors. When $g_F$ > $g_B$ , $I^{*}$ grows without bound, and the batch size required to keep the arithmetic units busy grows with it. Autoregressive decoding sits on the wrong side of this: generating one token requires streaming the weights and the accumulated key–value cache, so decode time is bounded below by

Meanings in this article

• $g_F$: the open question, not whether relief exists.
• $g_B$: the annual growth factors.

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