Symbol ρ
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Two data points three years apart, 0.018 for InstructGPT and 0.17 to 0.19 for DeepSeek-R1, describe a ratio that has grown roughly tenfold. Epoch AI’s broader analysis of post-training compute trends confirms the direction independently of any single model: reasoning-focused post-training compute has scaled by roughly a factor of ten every four months, far outpacing pretraining’s historical growth of roughly four to five times a year, and the analysts note this cannot continue much longer, because tripling post-training compute is on a path to soon mean tripling the entire training budget [ 10 ] . That finding needs one careful qualification for an article about…
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Equation 13 · AI Safety
What Alignment Actually Costs
This equation gives an approximation: it relates the quantities while allowing an approximation.
Two data points three years apart, 0.018 for InstructGPT and 0.17 to 0.19 for DeepSeek-R1, describe a ratio that has grown roughly tenfold. Epoch AI’s broader analysis of post-training compute trends confirms the direction independently of any single model: reasoning-focused post-training compute has scaled by roughly a factor of ten every four months, far outpacing pretraining’s historical growth of roughly four to five times a year, and the analysts note this cannot continue much longer, because tripling post-training compute is on a path to soon mean tripling the entire training budget [ 10 ] . That finding needs one careful qualification for an article about…
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