Symbol k
one of the few published metrics designed to recover it, and its scarcity elsewhere in this literature is itself a gap in the evidence.
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Why this formula appears here
That gap is large enough to be worth writing down explicitly. If a task’s outcome were an independent Bernoulli draw with a fixed success probability p equal to the reported average, the probability that all k independent attempts at the same task succeed would be . At p = 0.60 and k = 8 , that model predicts roughly 1.7%. The reported figure — under 25% — sits well above that naive prediction, and the direction of the gap is informative on its own: it is only possible if outcomes are not independent draws from one fixed probability, but rather reflect a task population that splits into instances the agent reliably solves and instances it reliably does not, with the…
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Symbol p^k
is an input to the expression that computes the quantity on the left.
Read this term in its guide →Probability operator
The probability operator gives the chance of the event named inside its brackets or parentheses.
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Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.
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Published contexts (1)
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Equation 3 · AI Infrastructure
Measuring Tool Protocols and the Model Context Protocol: Evidence, Benchmarks, and Uncertainty
This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions.
That gap is large enough to be worth writing down explicitly. If a task’s outcome were an independent Bernoulli draw with a fixed success probability p equal to the reported average, the probability that all k independent attempts at the same task succeed would be . At p = 0.60 and k = 8 , that model predicts roughly 1.7%. The reported figure — under 25% — sits well above that naive prediction, and the direction of the gap is informative on its own: it is only possible if outcomes are not independent draws from one fixed probability, but rather reflect a task population that splits into instances the agent reliably solves and instances it reliably does not, with the…
Meanings in this article
- : one of the few published metrics designed to recover it, and its scarcity elsewhere in this literature is itself a gap in the evidence.