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Equation 3 · Measuring Tool Protocols and the Model Context Protocol: Evidence, Benchmarks, and Uncertainty

What does this equation mean?

Pr⁡[all k attempts succeed]=pk.\Pr[\text{all } k \text{ attempts succeed}] = p^{k}.

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Inputs and operationsp^k
Result or conditionPr[all k attempts succeed]
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This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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kk

Symbol k

one of the few published metrics designed to recover it, and its scarcity elsewhere in this literature is itself a gap in the evidence.

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pkp^{k}

Symbol p^k

pkp^k is an input to the expression that computes the quantity on the left.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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superscript

superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

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Pr⁡\Pr

Probability operator

The probability operator gives the chance of the event named inside its brackets or parentheses.

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How to interpret it

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What the article says around this equation

That gap is large enough to be worth writing down explicitly. If a task’s outcome were an independent Bernoulli draw with a fixed success probability p equal to the reported average, the probability that all k independent attempts at the same task succeed would be Pr⁡[all k attempts succeed]=pk\Pr[\text{all } k \text{ attempts succeed}] = p^{k}. At p = 0.60 and k = 8 , that model predicts roughly 1.7%. The reported figure — under 25% — sits well above that naive prediction, and the direction of the gap is informative on its own: it is only possible if outcomes are not independent draws from one fixed probability, but rather reflect a task population that splits into instances the agent reliably solves and instances it reliably does not, with the…
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That gap is large enough to be worth writing down explicitly. If a task’s outcome were an independent Bernoulli draw with a fixed success probability p equal to the reported average, the probability that all k independent attempts at the same task succeed would be Pr⁡[all k attempts succeed]=pk\Pr[\text{all } k \text{ attempts succeed}] = p^{k}. At p = 0.60 and k = 8 , that model predicts roughly 1.7%. The reported figure — under 25% — sits well above that naive prediction, and the direction of the gap is informative on its own: it is only possible if outcomes are not independent draws from one fixed probability, but rather reflect a task population that splits into instances the agent reliably solves and instances it reliably does not, with the reported 60% average blending the two. The practical consequence is that a single success-rate figure understates how often a system that “usually works” will keep failing on the same class of request every single time it is asked, and overstates how often a system that “usually fails” might still be coaxed into success by trying again. Averages compress that structure away; passks^k is one of the few published metrics designed to recover it, and its scarcity elsewhere in this literature is itself a gap in the evidence.

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