Equation 3 · Measuring Tool Protocols and the Model Context Protocol: Evidence, Benchmarks, and Uncertainty
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This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.
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Symbol k
one of the few published metrics designed to recover it, and its scarcity elsewhere in this literature is itself a gap in the evidence.
Symbol p^k
is an input to the expression that computes the quantity on the left.
=
The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.
See an illustrated explanation →superscript
A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.
See an illustrated explanation →Probability operator
The probability operator gives the chance of the event named inside its brackets or parentheses.
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What the article says around this equation
That gap is large enough to be worth writing down explicitly. If a task’s outcome were an independent Bernoulli draw with a fixed success probability p equal to the reported average, the probability that all k independent attempts at the same task succeed would be . At p = 0.60 and k = 8 , that model predicts roughly 1.7%. The reported figure — under 25% — sits well above that naive prediction, and the direction of the gap is informative on its own: it is only possible if outcomes are not independent draws from one fixed probability, but rather reflect a task population that splits into instances the agent reliably solves and instances it reliably does not, with the…
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That gap is large enough to be worth writing down explicitly. If a task’s outcome were an independent Bernoulli draw with a fixed success probability p equal to the reported average, the probability that all k independent attempts at the same task succeed would be . At p = 0.60 and k = 8 , that model predicts roughly 1.7%. The reported figure — under 25% — sits well above that naive prediction, and the direction of the gap is informative on its own: it is only possible if outcomes are not independent draws from one fixed probability, but rather reflect a task population that splits into instances the agent reliably solves and instances it reliably does not, with the reported 60% average blending the two. The practical consequence is that a single success-rate figure understates how often a system that “usually works” will keep failing on the same class of request every single time it is asked, and overstates how often a system that “usually fails” might still be coaxed into success by trying again. Averages compress that structure away; pas is one of the few published metrics designed to recover it, and its scarcity elsewhere in this literature is itself a gap in the evidence.
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