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R(t)R(t)

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Whether the multimodal AI market consolidates around a small number of vertically integrated any-to-any platforms, or remains a supply chain of composed specialist vendors the way it mostly is today, is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write U(t) for the share of new production multimodal deployments built on a single native any-to-any model rather than a composed pipeline — Axis A’s own proxy — and R(t) for the share of multimodal deployments operating in open, uncurated conditions that meet a reliability bar without a human fallback — Axis B’s own proxy. A platform bet on one any-to-any vendor only pays off if that vendor’s model is both the one everyone is…

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RR

Symbol R

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tt

Symbol t

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Published contexts (5)

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R(t)R(t)

Equation 2 · Foundation Models

Multimodal AI in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

Whether the multimodal AI market consolidates around a small number of vertically integrated any-to-any platforms, or remains a supply chain of composed specialist vendors the way it mostly is today, is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write U(t) for the share of new production multimodal deployments built on a single native any-to-any model rather than a composed pipeline — Axis A’s own proxy — and R(t) for the share of multimodal deployments operating in open, uncurated conditions that meet a reliability bar without a human fallback — Axis B’s own proxy. A platform bet on one any-to-any vendor only pays off if that vendor’s model is both the one everyone is…

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R(t)R(t)

Equation 7 · Foundation Models

Multimodal AI in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

C(t) stays at zero however high either term climbs alone. Axis A determines whether U(t) can plausibly clear u∗u^{*} within this article’s horizon; Axis B determines whether R(t) can. Neither can be inferred from the other, which is why they are kept as two axes rather than folded into one.

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R(t)R(t)

Equation 5 · AI Research

Mechanistic Interpretability in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

R(t) stays at zero however high either term climbs alone, exactly as the AISI account above already anticipates by asking for outside validation before treating interpretability-based detection as sufficient on its own [ 11 ] . Axis A determines whether A(t) can plausibly clear a∗a^{*} within the horizon this article considers; Axis B determines whether S(t) can. Neither can be inferred from the other, which is why they are kept as two axes rather than folded into one.

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R(t)R(t)

Equation 11 · AI Research

Mechanistic Interpretability in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

Observable indicators. Coverage figures comparable to scenario one’s threshold appear in system cards, reported alongside method-specific metrics that do not map onto a competitor’s; RAVEL- and SAEBench-style benchmarks keep publishing but adoption stays partial; A(t) clears the coverage bar this article’s model requires while S(t) does not, so R(t) stays at zero even as raw coverage looks like scenario one’s.

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R(t)R(t)

Equation 14 · AI Research

Mechanistic Interpretability in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

Observable indicators. Published coverage figures plateau in roughly the range Circuit Tracing already reports even as benchmark adoption becomes near-universal; safety cases and certifications, where they use interpretability at all, name specific bounded claims rather than model-wide guarantees [ 12 ] ; S(t) clears its threshold while A(t) does not, so R(t) stays zero for broad claims and becomes available only for a narrower, differently defined admissibility condition this article does not formalize.

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