Equation 2 · Multimodal AI in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers
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Whether the multimodal AI market consolidates around a small number of vertically integrated any-to-any platforms, or remains a supply chain of composed specialist vendors the way it mostly is today, is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write U(t) for the share of new production multimodal deployments built on a single native any-to-any model rather than a composed pipeline — Axis A’s own proxy — and R(t) for the share of multimodal deployments operating in open, uncurated conditions that meet a reliability bar without a human fallback — Axis B’s own proxy. A platform bet on one any-to-any vendor only pays off if that vendor’s model is both the one everyone is…
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Whether the multimodal AI market consolidates around a small number of vertically integrated any-to-any platforms, or remains a supply chain of composed specialist vendors the way it mostly is today, is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write U(t) for the share of new production multimodal deployments built on a single native any-to-any model rather than a composed pipeline — Axis A’s own proxy — and R(t) for the share of multimodal deployments operating in open, uncurated conditions that meet a reliability bar without a human fallback — Axis B’s own proxy. A platform bet on one any-to-any vendor only pays off if that vendor’s model is both the one everyone is building on and reliable enough to run without a safety net; a highly reliable system stitched together from several vendors’ best components does not consolidate the market around any one of them. Consolidation is therefore better modelled as a conjunction than an average:
Sources cited in the article section
- [1] Hello GPT-4o ↗
- [3] Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models ↗
- [4] Chameleon: Mixed-Modal Early-Fusion Foundation Models ↗
- [6] Efficient Multimodal Large Language Models: A Survey ↗
- [5] Scaling Native Multimodal Pre-Training From Scratch ↗
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.
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