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O(t)O(t)

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Whether the open-weight ecosystem consolidates around a handful of dominant families or stays fragmented across many providers is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write O(t) for a stylised index of how close the strongest open-weight models sit to the closed frontier — Axis A’s own proxy, anchored in the Epoch and Artificial Analysis readings above [ 1 , 4 ] — and W(t) for the share of open-weight releases operating under standardized external governance: a regulatory regime that reviews them the way closed deployment is reviewed, or a licence that is genuinely OSI-compatible rather than bespoke [ 16 ] . Reaching and holding a position near the frontier takes…

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OO

Symbol O

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tt

Symbol t

t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

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Published contexts (2)

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O(t)O(t)

Equation 1 · Open Models

Open-Weight AI in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

Whether the open-weight ecosystem consolidates around a handful of dominant families or stays fragmented across many providers is not a third axis; it is what the other two jointly produce. Write O(t) for a stylised index of how close the strongest open-weight models sit to the closed frontier — Axis A’s own proxy, anchored in the Epoch and Artificial Analysis readings above [ 1 , 4 ] — and W(t) for the share of open-weight releases operating under standardized external governance: a regulatory regime that reviews them the way closed deployment is reviewed, or a licence that is genuinely OSI-compatible rather than bespoke [ 16 ] . Reaching and holding a position near the frontier takes…

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O(t)O(t)

Equation 5 · Open Models

Open-Weight AI in 2035: Scenarios and Falsifiers

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

K(t) stays low however high either term climbs alone. Axis A determines whether O(t) can plausibly clear o∗o^{*} within this article’s horizon; Axis B determines whether W(t) can. Neither can be inferred from the other, which is why they are kept as two axes rather than folded into one — and why a narrowing capability gap sitting beside a licensing and regulatory picture that is still openly split, as documented above, does not yet settle which way the ecosystem’s structure moves.

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