$$B(t)$$

Equation 7 · Model Evaluation

The Frontier Model Landscape in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.

where B(t) is a provider’s position on a composite benchmark or leaderboard index at time t , D(t) is its position on a deployment-outcome measure such as production task completion or retained enterprise share, and w(t) $\in$ [0,1] is the weight public comparison, procurement practice and press coverage place on the benchmark term. Axis B is precisely a claim about where w(t) is heading: toward one, where the scenario names below carry the word “Board,” or toward zero, where they carry the word “Ledger” instead. No source cited in this article reports w(t) directly as a number, which is the honest reason this is an axis and not an already-settled fact.

Meanings in this article

• $t$: the time or time index used in this relationship.

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Equation 2 · Foundation Models

Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

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Write F(t) for peak arithmetic throughput and B(t) for memory bandwidth. The quantity that matters for a serving system is their ratio, because it sets the arithmetic intensity — operations per byte moved — at which a machine becomes compute-bound rather than bandwidth-bound:

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