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Equation 10 · Part 5 · The Jagged Frontier Fallacy: Deconstructing Harvard's Canonical AI Productivity Study

Symbol pi_s

Δln⁡TFP≈∑s∈Aαs⋅πs,\Delta \ln \text{TFP} \approx \sum_{s \in \mathcal{A}} \alpha_s \cdot \pi_s,
πs\pi_s

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pisi_s is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

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where each task y(s) can be performed by labor or by an automated system if that task falls within the feasible automated set A\mathcal{A} . Under Hulten’s theorem, the first-order aggregate TFP cost savings from automating a subset of tasks is bounded by the expenditure share of the automated tasks multiplied by the average unit cost reduction: Δln⁡TFP≈∑s∈Aαs⋅πs\Delta \ln \text{TFP} \approx \sum_{s \in \mathcal{A}} \alpha_s \cdot \pi_s. where αs\alpha_s is the baseline economic share of task s and πs\pi_s = cL(s)−cA(s)cL(s)\frac{c_L(s) - c_A(s)}{c_L(s)} represents the proportional cost reduction achieved on that task [ 2 ] .

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