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Equation 3 · Part 2 · The Frontier Model Landscape in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol t

Ctrain(t)≈C0 g t−t0,C_{\text{train}}(t) \approx C_0\, g^{\,t-t_0},
tt

What this part means

t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Its job in the formula

t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

The passage around this formula

Write Ctrain(t)C_{\text{train}}(t) for the cost of the largest training run in year t . Epoch’s estimate is well approximated by simple exponential growth, Ctrain(t)≈C0 g t−t0C_{\text{train}}(t) \approx C_0\, g^{\,t-t_0}. with g between roughly two-point-four and three-point-five depending on method and window [ 5 , 6 ] . The form matters more than the exact rate: exponential cost growth does not by itself predict…

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