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Equation 13 · Part 1 · Ten Ways an Agent Evaluation Can Mislead You Even When It's Working Correctly

Symbol hatp

p^\hat{p}
p^\hat{p}

What this part means

hatp is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

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hatp is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

The passage around this formula

4. Insufficient trial counts producing false confidence. A success rate reported from a small number of trials carries a much wider margin of error than the single reported number suggests, and the interval widens fast as the trial count shrinks. For a naive binomial estimate — treating each trial as an independent coin flip with unknown success probability p — the 95 percent confidence interval around an observed rate p^\hat{p} from n trials is approximately

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A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

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