Equation 13 · Ten Ways an Agent Evaluation Can Mislead You Even When It's Working Correctly
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4. Insufficient trial counts producing false confidence. A success rate reported from a small number of trials carries a much wider margin of error than the single reported number suggests, and the interval widens fast as the trial count shrinks. For a naive binomial estimate — treating each trial as an independent coin flip with unknown success probability p — the 95 percent confidence interval around an observed rate from n trials is approximately
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