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Equation 3 · Part 3 · Ten Failure Modes That Define Production Claude Code Use

Symbol t_0

T50(t)≈T50(t0)⋅2 (t−t0)/d,d≈7 months,T_{50}(t) \approx T_{50}(t_0) \cdot 2^{\,(t - t_0)/d}, \qquad d \approx 7\ \text{months},
t0t_0

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t0t_0 is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Its job in the formula

t0t_0 is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

The passage around this formula

It is intuitive to expect an agentic session to improve as it accumulates context about a task. The measured pattern runs the other way. METR’s time-horizon research tracks the length of task — measured in how long a skilled human would take — that a frontier model can complete autonomously with a given reliability, and finds current frontier models near 100% success on tasks taking a human under four minutes, collapsing to under 10% success on tasks taking more than about four hours, with Claude 3.7 Sonnet reported specifically among the models exhibiting this drop-off [ 13 ] . The organization’s headline trend — the task length completable at 50% reliability doubling roughly every seven…

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