Symbol t

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…over six years of measurement — is worth writing as an explicit model rather than a slogan, because it is the empirical claim the section rests on: if $T_{50}(t)$ is the task duration completable at 50% reliability at year t , METR’s fit is $T_{50}(t) \approx T_{50}(t_0) \cdot 2^{\,(t - t_0)/d}, \qquad d \approx 7\ \text{months}$. with the organization’s own caveat that the exact doubling time d is sensitive to task selection and human-baseline methodology, even though the qualitative exponential trend is one they hold with more confidence [ 13 ] .

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