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Equation 4 · Reactor Phylogenetics: The Family Tree of Fission Power

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a,ba, b

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aa

Symbol a

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bb

Symbol b

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where nAn_A and nBn_B are cumulative past adoptions and a, b are small initial weights representing early, largely arbitrary advantages [ 2 ] . Once nAn_A pulls ahead by chance or by an unrelated advantage — a submarine program’s development budget, say — the process is self-reinforcing regardless of whether A is the objectively superior technology, and it can lock in permanently long before the alternative gets a fair trial. That is Cowan’s finding about light water stated in the exact mathematical language Arthur built for the general phenomenon, not a loose parallel drawn after the fact [ 1 ] [ 2 ] .

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