Equation 2 · Reactor Phylogenetics: The Family Tree of Fission Power
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cumulative past adoptions and a. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.
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subscript
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where and are cumulative past adoptions and a, b are small initial weights representing early, largely arbitrary advantages [ 2 ] . Once pulls ahead by chance or by an unrelated advantage — a submarine program’s development budget, say — the process is self-reinforcing regardless of whether A is the objectively superior technology, and it can lock in permanently long before the alternative gets a fair trial. That is Cowan’s finding about light water stated in the exact mathematical language Arthur built for the general phenomenon, not a loose parallel drawn after the fact [ 1 ] [ 2 ] .
Sources cited in the surrounding passage
- [2] Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events ↗
- [1] Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study in Technological Lock-in ↗
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