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Equation 1 · Part 6 · Reactor Phylogenetics: The Family Tree of Fission Power

Symbol b

P(next adopter=A∣nA,nB)=nA+anA+nB+a+bP(\text{next adopter} = A \mid n_A, n_B) = \frac{n_A + a}{n_A + n_B + a + b}
bb

What this part means

b occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.

Its job in the formula

b occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.

The passage around this formula

…of competing technologies under increasing returns describes exactly this dynamic as a generalized Pólya urn: two technologies accumulate adopters, and the probability the next adopter chooses technology A over B is proportional to how many adopters A already has, so that P(next adopter=A∣nA,nB)=nA+anA+nB+a+bP(\text{next adopter} = A \mid n_A, n_B) = \frac{n_A + a}{n_A + n_B + a + b}. where nAn_A and nBn_B are cumulative past adoptions and a, b are small initial weights representing early, largely arbitrary advantages [ 2 ] . Once nAn_A pulls ahead by chance or by an unrelated advantage — a submarine…

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A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

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Sources cited in the surrounding passage

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