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Equation 7 · Part 1 · Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol I^*

I∗I^{*}
I∗I^{*}

What this part means

I∗I^* is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Its job in the formula

I∗I^* is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

The passage around this formula

with gFg_F and gBg_B the annual growth factors. When gFg_F > gBg_B , I∗I^{*} grows without bound, and the batch size required to keep the arithmetic units busy grows with it. Autoregressive decoding sits on the wrong side of this: generating one token requires streaming the weights and the accumulated key–value cache, so decode time is bounded below by

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Learn the underlying idea

An exponent tells how a base is used in multiplication. In x³, x is the base and 3 is the exponent: x³ = x × x × x.

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Sources cited in the article section

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