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Equation 3 · Part 9 · Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

fraction

I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)t,I^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t},
fraction

What this part means

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

Its job in the formula

The expression above the fraction bar is divided by the complete expression below it. The denominator must not be zero.

The passage around this formula

Write F(t) for peak arithmetic throughput and B(t) for memory bandwidth. The quantity that matters for a serving system is their ratio, because it sets the arithmetic intensity — operations per byte moved — at which a machine becomes compute-bound rather than bandwidth-bound: I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)tI^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t}. with gFg_F and gBg_B the annual growth factors. When gFg_F > gBg_B , I∗I^{*} grows without bound, and the batch size required to keep the arithmetic units busy grows with it. Autoregressive decoding sits on the wrong side of this: generating one token requires streaming the weights and the accumulated key–value cache, so decode time is bounded below by

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Learn the underlying idea

A fraction a/b means a divided by b. The top number is the numerator; the bottom number is the denominator, and it cannot be zero.

Open the illustrated fractions: division written vertically guide →

Sources cited in the article section

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