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Equation 3 · Part 5 · Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol I^*_0

I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)t,I^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t},
I0∗I^{*}_0

What this part means

I0∗I^*_0 is one factor in the product that computes the quantity on the left.

Its job in the formula

I0∗I^*_0 is one factor in the product that computes the quantity on the left.

The passage around this formula

Write F(t) for peak arithmetic throughput and B(t) for memory bandwidth. The quantity that matters for a serving system is their ratio, because it sets the arithmetic intensity — operations per byte moved — at which a machine becomes compute-bound rather than bandwidth-bound: I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)tI^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t}. with gFg_F and gBg_B the annual growth factors. When gFg_F > gBg_B , I∗I^{*} grows without bound, and the batch size required to keep the arithmetic units busy grows with it. Autoregressive decoding sits on the wrong side of this: generating one token requires streaming the weights and the accumulated key–value cache, so decode time is bounded below by

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Learn the underlying idea

A subscript is a label attached below a symbol. It often selects a time step, component, category, or member of a sequence.

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Sources cited in the article section

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