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Equation 3 · Part 2 · Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol t

I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)t,I^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t},
tt

What this part means

t is an argument of the function-like quantity on the left; its role is set by that function’s stated inputs.

Its job in the formula

t is an argument of the function-like quantity on the left; its role is set by that function’s stated inputs.

The passage around this formula

Write F(t) for peak arithmetic throughput and B(t) for memory bandwidth. The quantity that matters for a serving system is their ratio, because it sets the arithmetic intensity — operations per byte moved — at which a machine becomes compute-bound rather than bandwidth-bound: I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)tI^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t}. with gFg_F and gBg_B the annual growth factors. When gFg_F > gBg_B , I∗I^{*} grows without bound, and the batch size required to keep the arithmetic units busy grows with it. Autoregressive decoding sits on the wrong side of this: generating one token requires streaming the weights and the accumulated key–value cache, so decode time is bounded below by

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Learn the underlying idea

A function assigns an output to each allowed input. The expression f(x) means “apply f to x”.

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Sources cited in the article section

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