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Equation 3 · Part 11 · Model Systems in 2035: Four Scenarios, Their Signals, and What Would Falsify Them

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I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)t,I^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t},
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What this part means

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

Its job in the formula

A raised mark can be a power or an index. Its position and the surrounding notation determine which.

The passage around this formula

Write F(t) for peak arithmetic throughput and B(t) for memory bandwidth. The quantity that matters for a serving system is their ratio, because it sets the arithmetic intensity — operations per byte moved — at which a machine becomes compute-bound rather than bandwidth-bound: I∗(t)=F(t)B(t)=I0∗(gFgB)tI^{*}(t) = \frac{F(t)}{B(t)} = I^{*}_0 \left(\frac{g_F}{g_B}\right)^{t}. with gFg_F and gBg_B the annual growth factors. When gFg_F > gBg_B , I∗I^{*} grows without bound, and the batch size required to keep the arithmetic units busy grows with it. Autoregressive decoding sits on the wrong side of this: generating one token requires streaming the weights and the accumulated key–value cache, so decode time is bounded below by

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Learn the underlying idea

An exponent tells how a base is used in multiplication. In x³, x is the base and 3 is the exponent: x³ = x × x × x.

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Sources cited in the article section

These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.