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Equation 4 · Measuring AI Agent Architectures: Evidence, Benchmarks, and Uncertainty

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p8p^8

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p8p^8

Symbol p^8

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superscript

superscript

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tau-bench’s reported results are worse than even that pessimistic independence assumption predicts: the authors report pass8s^8 below 25% in the retail domain, a figure that is lower than p8p^8 would be if the single-trial success rate were applied under a true-independence assumption [ 6 ] . That gap is the signature of correlated rather than independent failure — the same underlying policy tends to fail the same task in the same way on repeated attempts, rather than failing at random and averaging out. AgentBench’s broader finding, that poor long-horizon reasoning and imprecise instruction-following are the primary obstacles separating commercial from open-source agents [ 7 ] , is consistent…
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tau-bench’s reported results are worse than even that pessimistic independence assumption predicts: the authors report pass8s^8 below 25% in the retail domain, a figure that is lower than p8p^8 would be if the single-trial success rate were applied under a true-independence assumption [ 6 ] . That gap is the signature of correlated rather than independent failure — the same underlying policy tends to fail the same task in the same way on repeated attempts, rather than failing at random and averaging out. AgentBench’s broader finding, that poor long-horizon reasoning and imprecise instruction-following are the primary obstacles separating commercial from open-source agents [ 7 ] , is consistent with this picture: a systematic architectural weak point produces repeatable failure, not noise. A single pass-rate number cannot distinguish “occasionally slips” from “reliably fails this way,” and most published agent-benchmark leaderboards report only the former.

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