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Equation 3 · Human Evolution Did Not Stop, and Medicine Is Now Steering It

What does this equation mean?

qn+1=qn(1−sqn)1−sqn2q_{n+1} = \frac{q_n(1 - s q_n)}{1 - s q_n^2}

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Start withq_n(1 - s q_n)
Divide by1 - s q_n^2
This relates toq_n+1
How to read the two sides of this formula. Follow the article passage for the meaning of each quantity.

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions. Read the equation part by part below; each part has a contextual explanation and a link to its mathematical background.

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qn+1q_{n+1}

Symbol q_n+1

qnq_n+1 is part of the quantity the equation computes from the expression on the right.

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qnq_n

Symbol q_n

qnq_n is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

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ss

Symbol s

s is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.

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qn2q_n^2

Symbol q_n^2

qn2q_n^2 occurs below the fraction bar. The quantity above the bar is divided by this expression; zero is excluded as a denominator.

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=

=

The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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fraction

fraction

Divide the expression above the line by the one below it.

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addition

addition

Add the term after the plus sign to the term or group before it.

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subtraction

subtraction

Subtract the following term or group from the preceding one. A leading minus marks a negative quantity.

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subscript

subscript

The lower label selects a particular version, component, or indexed member of the quantity. For example, x₀ and xₜ can be values at different positions.

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superscript

superscript

A raised number can be a power. When it is a label or bound, it selects a case or the upper limit of a sum; the formula’s structure distinguishes these uses.

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qn(1−sqn)q_n(1 - s q_n)

Numerator: q_n(1 - s q_n)

The complete quantity above the fraction bar.

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1−sqn21 - s q_n^2

Denominator: 1 - s q_n^2

The complete quantity below the fraction bar; it must be nonzero for this division.

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How to interpret it

With a fixed numerator, increasing a nonzero denominator reduces the fraction. Read it with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.

What the article says around this equation

It is worth working through what that channel can and cannot do to a population’s allele frequencies, because the arithmetic is genuinely calculable and genuinely modest. Consider a recessive disease allele at population frequency q , and suppose that in some fraction of pregnancies where both parents are identified carriers, embryo testing prevents the birth of an affected (homozygous) child while parents still have the same number of children overall, drawn from the surviving unaffected and carrier embryos. The standard discrete-generation recursion for selection with coefficient s against a fully recessive genotype is: qn+1=qn(1−sqn)1−sqn2q_{n+1} = \frac{q_n(1 - s q_n)}{1 - s q_n^2}. Set s = 1 , the theoretical maximum in which…
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It is worth working through what that channel can and cannot do to a population’s allele frequencies, because the arithmetic is genuinely calculable and genuinely modest. Consider a recessive disease allele at population frequency q , and suppose that in some fraction of pregnancies where both parents are identified carriers, embryo testing prevents the birth of an affected (homozygous) child while parents still have the same number of children overall, drawn from the surviving unaffected and carrier embryos. The standard discrete-generation recursion for selection with coefficient s against a fully recessive genotype is: qn+1=qn(1−sqn)1−sqn2q_{n+1} = \frac{q_n(1 - s q_n)}{1 - s q_n^2}. Set s = 1 , the theoretical maximum in which every affected embryo is detected and never implanted: for q = 0.01 , this gives qn+1q_{n+1} = qnq_n/(1+qnq_n) ≈\approx 0.009901 , a reduction of under one-tenth of one percent of the allele’s frequency in a single generation, even at total, universal, perfectly effective screening. The reason the effect is so small is structural, not a modeling artifact: for a rare recessive allele, the overwhelming majority of copies are carried silently in heterozygous carriers, invisible to any selection that acts only on homozygotes, and embryo selection — like natural selection against recessive disease before it — can only ever act on the small fraction of matings where two carriers happen to pair up. Layered on top of that structural limit is the fact that PGT operates only within IVF, itself a minority pathway to conception worldwide, so the realized value of the effective screening fraction f across all human conception is far below the illustrative s=1 ceiling used above. Screening’s population-genetic footprint, in other words, is real, directionally opposite to the tiny drift toward higher mutation load discussed earlier, and — on the arithmetic above — slower than either.

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