Equation 3 · Part 1 · Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide

Symbol i

i

i

What this part means

i is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Its job in the formula

i is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

Full expressionSymbol iArticle meaning

The passage around this formula

where $p_i$ is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and $o_i$ $\in$ \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.

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Learn the underlying idea

A variable is a named place for a value. Its letter is a local label: x can mean position in one formula and a data point in another.

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See this notation across published equations →

Sources cited in the article section

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