Equation 3 · Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide
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Symbol i
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What the article says around this equation
where is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.
Sources cited in the article section
- [2] Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ↗
- [3] Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation ↗
- [7] A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule ↗
- [1] Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions ↗
- [4] Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program ↗
These citations give research context. Read each source to check which claims it supports.
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