Equation 8 · Frontier AI Model Comparisons: A First-Principles Introduction
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Symbol a_true
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subscript
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What the article says around this equation
where is the capability the benchmark intends to measure, 0 is a one-directional inflation term from training-set overlap, and is noise contributed by harness, prompt, effort level, and grading choices, which can push the observed score in either direction. Two systems’ values can differ substantially even when their values are identical, and can appear equal even when their values are not, purely through the other two terms. Nothing about this requires bad faith on anyone’s part; it follows from the measurement being taken at all.
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