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Equation 28 · Part 5 · Einstein's Random Walk and the Mathematics of Genetic Drift

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u(p)=1−e−4Nsp1−e−4Nsu(p) = \frac{1-e^{-4Nsp}}{1-e^{-4Ns}}
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The expressions on both sides represent the same quantity under the stated assumptions.

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The passage around this formula

That machinery pays off in the cleanest result in the theory of drift. Kimura’s 1962 formula for the probability that a gene with selective advantage s eventually fixes, starting from frequency p in a population of effective size N , is u(p)=1−e−4Nsp1−e−4Nsu(p) = \frac{1-e^{-4Nsp}}{1-e^{-4Ns}}. as verified directly from his derivation [ 7 ] . Let the selective advantage vanish — the allele is neutral, indistinguishable from its alternatives in its effect on survival or reproduction — and the exponentials cancel term by term, leaving

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