Equation 1 · Part 7 · Attribution: Tying One Event to a Changing Climate
Numerator: 1
What this part means
The complete quantity above the fraction bar.
Its job in the formula
1 is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.
Full expression→Numerator: 1→Article meaning
The passage around this formula
The standard output is a probability ratio, also called a risk ratio, comparing the annual probability of the event in the factual climate with its probability in the counterfactual one [ 3 ] . Writing those probabilities as the factual and counterfactual annual exceedance probabilities, . The fraction of attributable risk is a monotone transform of the ratio and contains no additional information. Its name invites a misreading that the field has warned about for two decades: it is not the probability that this event was caused by forcing, and it does not license the statement that a given fraction of the damage was anthropogenic in any individual case. It is a…
Learn the underlying idea
A fraction a/b means a divided by b. The top number is the numerator; the bottom number is the denominator, and it cannot be zero.
Open the illustrated fractions: division written vertically guide →
Sources cited in the surrounding passage
- [3] A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses ↗
- [6] Foundations of attribution in climate-change science ↗
These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.