Equation 1 · Part 2 · Attribution: Tying One Event to a Changing Climate
Symbol p_0
What this part means
is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.
Its job in the formula
is one of the signed contributions combined to compute the quantity on the left.
Full expression→Symbol p_0→Article meaning
The passage around this formula
The standard output is a probability ratio, also called a risk ratio, comparing the annual probability of the event in the factual climate with its probability in the counterfactual one [ 3 ] . Writing those probabilities as the factual and counterfactual annual exceedance probabilities, . The fraction of attributable risk is a monotone transform of the ratio and contains no additional information. Its name invites a misreading that the field has warned about for two decades: it is not the probability that this event was caused by forcing, and it does not license the statement that a given fraction of the damage was anthropogenic in any individual case. It is a…
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Sources cited in the surrounding passage
- [3] A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses ↗
- [6] Foundations of attribution in climate-change science ↗
These citations provide research context; check each source for the exact claim it supports.