Equation 1 · AI Memory Systems and the Bandwidth Wall in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions
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With two verified anchor points — HBM3 in 2022 at roughly 0.82 terabytes per second per stack, HBM4 in 2025 at up to 2.0 terabytes per second per stack [ 1 , 2 ] — it is possible to build an explicit, falsifiable trajectory rather than a vague “bandwidth will keep rising.” Model the growth as a simple exponential in calendar time, . where is the bandwidth at reference year and is the doubling time implied by the data. Solving for from the two JEDEC anchor points gives
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