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Equation 8 · Part 2 · AI Alignment and Safety in 2035: Two Axes, Four Scenarios, and What Would Falsify Them

Symbol t

V(t)V(t)
tt

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t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.

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Mechanism. The same technical progress as scenario one occurs, but it stays inside the labs that develop it. Circuit-tracing-style tools and oversight procedures become routine internal practice at a small number of frontier labs, the way Circuit Tracing and weak-to-strong generalization already emerged from single-lab research programmes [ 6 , 3 ] , without an external certifier ever checking the method’s claims — Coggins and colleagues’ critique already shows that even a published framework’s actual guarantees can be narrower than its language suggests [ 11 ] , and nothing in this scenario changes who gets to look. V(t) rises for those labs specifically; the field-wide V(t) this article’s…

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