Equation 8 · AI Alignment and Safety in 2035: Two Axes, Four Scenarios, and What Would Falsify Them
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Symbol V
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Symbol t
t is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.
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What the article says around this equation
Mechanism. The same technical progress as scenario one occurs, but it stays inside the labs that develop it. Circuit-tracing-style tools and oversight procedures become routine internal practice at a small number of frontier labs, the way Circuit Tracing and weak-to-strong generalization already emerged from single-lab research programmes [ 6 , 3 ] , without an external certifier ever checking the method’s claims — Coggins and colleagues’ critique already shows that even a published framework’s actual guarantees can be narrower than its language suggests [ 11 ] , and nothing in this scenario changes who gets to look. V(t) rises for those labs specifically; the field-wide V(t) this article’s…
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Mechanism. The same technical progress as scenario one occurs, but it stays inside the labs that develop it. Circuit-tracing-style tools and oversight procedures become routine internal practice at a small number of frontier labs, the way Circuit Tracing and weak-to-strong generalization already emerged from single-lab research programmes [ 6 , 3 ] , without an external certifier ever checking the method’s claims — Coggins and colleagues’ critique already shows that even a published framework’s actual guarantees can be narrower than its language suggests [ 11 ] , and nothing in this scenario changes who gets to look. V(t) rises for those labs specifically; the field-wide V(t) this article’s gap equation depends on rises much more slowly, because adoption stays proprietary.
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