Symbol o_i
is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.
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Why this formula appears here
where is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.
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Read this expression with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.
Research cited beside this formula
- [2] Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ↗
- [3] Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation ↗
- [7] A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule ↗
- [1] Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions ↗
- [4] Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program ↗
Published contexts (1)
A symbol can carry a different meaning in another article. Each occurrence keeps its own guide and term definitions.
Equation 4 · Future Studies
Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide
This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.
where is the forecaster’s stated probability on question i and \{0,1\} is the realized outcome. Lower is better; a perfectly calibrated coin-flip forecaster scores 0.25 on a 50/50 question, and a forecaster who says 100 percent and is wrong scores the maximum possible 1.0.
Equation guide → · Article →