Symbol p
p is a part of this expression. Its role is fixed by the surrounding article and by the operations shown in the formula.
Read this term in its guide →Published equation contexts
Why this formula appears here
The logarithmic score , used by Metaculus, is if the event occurs and if it does not. This is a platform claim and design note , not independent research: Metaculus documents that the log score is far more punitive of confident misses than the Brier score is rewarding of confident hits — moving from 99 percent to 99.9 percent gains almost nothing if correct but costs roughly 2.3 points if wrong [ 7 ] . That asymmetry is deliberate: it is what makes the rule “strictly proper” in Gneiting and Raftery’s sense, because it punishes the temptation to round an honest 90 percent up to a persuasive-sounding 99 percent.
Read the representative guide
How to interpret it
Read this expression with the definitions, units, and assumptions supplied by the article.
Research cited beside this formula
Published contexts (1)
A symbol can carry a different meaning in another article. Each occurrence keeps its own guide and term definitions.
Equation 6 · Future Studies
Futures Methods and Technological Scenarios in Practice: An Advanced Technical Guide
This mathematical expression combines the displayed quantities; its precise role follows from the surrounding article text.
The logarithmic score , used by Metaculus, is if the event occurs and if it does not. This is a platform claim and design note , not independent research: Metaculus documents that the log score is far more punitive of confident misses than the Brier score is rewarding of confident hits — moving from 99 percent to 99.9 percent gains almost nothing if correct but costs roughly 2.3 points if wrong [ 7 ] . That asymmetry is deliberate: it is what makes the rule “strictly proper” in Gneiting and Raftery’s sense, because it punishes the temptation to round an honest 90 percent up to a persuasive-sounding 99 percent.
Equation guide → · Article →