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Published equation contexts

Pr⁡(task success)=∏i=1npi\Pr(\text{task success}) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} p_i

Why this formula appears here

Single-turn model quality can hide long-horizon fragility. Suppose a task has n dependent stages and each stage succeeds with conditional probability pip_i given that all previous stages succeeded. Then Pr⁡(task success)=∏i=1npi\Pr(\text{task success}) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} p_i. If one makes the deliberately crude assumption pip_i=p , a 98% reliable stage repeated 50 times yields 0.98^{50}≈\approx0.364 . Real agent steps are neither independent nor identically distributed: an early mistake can corrupt later observations, while a test can expose and reverse it. The simple product is useful because it reveals the architecture’s burden. Long tasks require mechanisms that change conditional probabilities after observing evidence , not merely a model with…

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ii

Symbol i

i appears in the bound of this product. The bound states where the repeated operation starts, ends, or which values it includes.

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Pr⁡\Pr

Probability operator

The probability operator gives the chance of the event named inside its brackets or parentheses.

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i=1i=1

Starting index or lower bound: i=1

This label says where the repeated addition, multiplication, or accumulation starts. Read its value or condition together with the article’s description of the index.

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nn

Ending index or upper bound: n

This label says where the repeated addition, multiplication, or accumulation stops. It sets the last term or end of the range.

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Published contexts (1)

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Pr⁡(task success)=∏i=1npi.\Pr(\text{task success}) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} p_i.

Equation 12 · AI Agents & Systems

Reliable AI Agents Are Control Systems, Not Chatbots

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions.

Single-turn model quality can hide long-horizon fragility. Suppose a task has n dependent stages and each stage succeeds with conditional probability pip_i given that all previous stages succeeded. Then Pr⁡(task success)=∏i=1npi\Pr(\text{task success}) = \prod_{i=1}^{n} p_i. If one makes the deliberately crude assumption pip_i=p , a 98% reliable stage repeated 50 times yields 0.98^{50}≈\approx0.364 . Real agent steps are neither independent nor identically distributed: an early mistake can corrupt later observations, while a test can expose and reverse it. The simple product is useful because it reveals the architecture’s burden. Long tasks require mechanisms that change conditional probabilities after observing evidence , not merely a model with…

Meanings in this article

  • nn: the number of dependent stages.
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