$$\Delta E_{\text{hull}} = E(\text{compound}) - E_{\text{convex hull}}(\text{composition})$$

Equation 1 · Materials Science

Materials Discovery and Degradation in 2035: Scenarios, Signals, and Falsifiable Predictions

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions.

If a screening model reports a stability margin against decomposition, $\Delta E_{\text{hull}} = E(\text{compound}) - E_{\text{convex hull}}(\text{composition})$. then a small positive $\Delta$ $E_{\text{hull}}$ has historically been treated as a proxy for “worth attempting to synthesize.” The 2024–2025 critique’s core point is that this proxy is weak: a large share of low- $\Delta$ $E_{\text{hull}}$ candidates in the GNoME set failed independent synthesizability screens once structural and existence-probability criteria were applied on top of the energy criterion alone [ 5 ] [ 10 ] . Closing the gap means replacing that single-variable proxy with a jointly trained, multi-criterion one — an analysis claim about what the fix would have to look like, not a report that…

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