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Published equation contexts

P(at least one surviving copy)=1−qNP(\text{at least one surviving copy}) = 1 - q^{N}

Why this formula appears here

Put the two facts together and the shape of the unsolved problem is precise. It is not “open weights are dangerous” — that is a separate, contested claim examined below. It is that the field has no method, proposed or implemented, for making a release reversible , and every mitigation on offer — better licences, use-restriction clauses, staged access — governs the decision to release, not anything that happens afterward. A simple way to see why after-the-fact governance cannot rescue the situation is to notice how quickly the number of independent copies dominates any per-copy probability of control. If N copies exist and each copyholder independently retains theirs with probability q close…

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P(at least one surviving copy)=1−qN.P(\text{at least one surviving copy}) = 1 - q^{N}.

Equation 4 · Open Models

The Hardest Unsolved Problems in Open-Weight AI

This equation states an equality: the expressions on both sides have the same value under the article’s assumptions.

Put the two facts together and the shape of the unsolved problem is precise. It is not “open weights are dangerous” — that is a separate, contested claim examined below. It is that the field has no method, proposed or implemented, for making a release reversible , and every mitigation on offer — better licences, use-restriction clauses, staged access — governs the decision to release, not anything that happens afterward. A simple way to see why after-the-fact governance cannot rescue the situation is to notice how quickly the number of independent copies dominates any per-copy probability of control. If N copies exist and each copyholder independently retains theirs with probability q close…

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